At the start of this year, SA’s department of agriculture, along with organised agriculture, agribusinesses and research groups in agriculture, established the Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of SA (ACAC), housed under the department.
The committee meets quarterly to assess statistical matters and methodology for the collection of agricultural statistics.
It also provides a platform for organised agricultural stakeholders and industry experts to share their views on observing the evolving agricultural landscape in SA.
I am part of the ACAC and on October 13 we had a meeting for the third quarter of 2025.
In the section about the agricultural conditions in the country, the committee viewed SA’s agricultural conditions as uneven, but leaning more towards the favourable growth path for most industries.
I want to lift a few passages from the committee’s official statement, which succinctly summarise the current state of our sector.
It stated that:
“In field crops, the output is up from the 2023/2024 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area.
“For example, SA’s 2024/2025 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94-million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase.
“This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts.
“As a result of this ample harvest, the commodity prices are generally under pressure.
“The season was roughly a month-and-a-half behind its typical schedule.
“As a result, some of the produce that would ordinarily be delivered in the second quarter was delivered in the third quarter, which may boost the gross-value-added figures specifically for that quarter.
“In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024/2025 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting.
“Prices are, however, under a bit of pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.
“In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season presented some snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter-crop-producing province of SA.
“Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop.
“Still, the production estimates remain decent, with SA’s winter crop estimated at 2.77-million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024/2025 season.
“This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.”
The committee noted further that:
“Regarding fruits, the 2024/2025 season has been a period of recovery. The citrus volumes, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are all in better conditions, and across the board, harvests, along with export volumes, are well up from last year.
“The ACAC also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates.
“The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the US market and the slow pace of export diversification.
“At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.
“The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall.
“Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure.
“Consequently, there are concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.”
On the downside, the committee said that:
“In livestock, the beef farmers and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease.
“The disease and the slow process of vaccination will weigh on the profitability of farming businesses.
“Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result.
“But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest.
“Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices, as a result of consumer substitution.
“These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions.
“The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs, which is a significant cost driver for them, while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.”
In a nutshell, we are experiencing an uneven recovery in SA’s agriculture this year.
- Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz)
The Herald
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